WINGX Global Market Tracker:

Iran conflict and Easter holiday sees YOY drop in bizjet traffic

Since the outbreak of the Iran-Israel-US conflict on 28 February, Middle East business aviation continues to deteriorate, with fuel uplift in the region falling to its lowest level since the conflict began

Globally, the picture is more nuanced, with Week 14's 0.6% year-on-year decline falling short of the strong momentum seen in recent weeks, with additional weakness in Europe, along with the Middle East, combining to drag the global figure below the 2026 weekly average.

Amid the turbulence, one bright spot stands out: the Masters Tournament tees off this week at Augusta National, and WINGX data forecasts a record 1,615 bizjet arrivals at Augusta Regional Airport (KAGS), a reminder that marquee events continue to drive exceptional demand spikes even as the broader market navigates an increasingly complex operating environment.

Global bizjet activity: Easter disruption and a weakening picture?

Global bizjet activity recorded 70,900 departures in Week 14 (30 March-5 April), a 0.6% year-on-year decline, marking the fourth week of negative weekly YOY growth in so far in 2026, along with Weeks 1, 4, and 5. The week's total fell short of the 73,100 average weekly departures recorded across the first 13 weeks of 2026, representing a potential slowdown due to the Easter holiday.

Year-to-date through 5 April, global bizjet activity remains +4.2% ahead of last year, a slight deceleration from the +4.5% reported through 29 March last week, and a modest acceleration from the +2.4% achieved over the same period in 2025 vs 2024.

In Week 14, the regional picture tells a story of two distinct drags on the global figure.

The Middle East, accounting for approximately 1% of global bizjet departures in Week 14, saw its 33.5% year-on-year decline suppress global weekly growth by roughly 0.3 percentage points. More significantly, Europe, accounting for 12% of global activity, recorded a 10.2% weekly decline, dragging the global figure down by approximately 1.2 percentage points. Combined, the two regions contributed roughly 1.5 percentage points of headwind to the global weekly number. In other terms, global bizjet growth would have been closer to +0.9% in Week 14 were it not for the weakness in these two markets.

Europe's decline, however, warrants important context. Easter week typically produces a pronounced dip in business jet activity, as we once again saw this year. Furthermore, Easter fell in Week 14 in 2026 compared to Week 16 in 2025, meaning this week's figures are being compared against a normal week last year rather than an equivalent holiday-affected period.

When comparing equivalent Easter weeks directly, Europe’s 8,628 departures in Week 14 2026 were actually a slight increase compared to the 8,579 departures in Week 16 2025, suggesting underlying European demand remains intact. A cleaner picture will emerge in the coming weeks once the Easter calendar mismatch has fully washed through the year-on-year comparisons.

Global Bizjet Departures Trends YTD (1 January-5 April).

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Middle East Weekly Evolution Tracker

WINGX estimated fuel uplift data provides the clearest lens through which to measure the cumulative and weekly toll of the conflict on Middle East business aviation. In the four weeks prior to the conflict outbreak (Weeks 5-8), Middle East bizjet activity averaged 1.7M USG of fuel uplift per week, establishing the pre-conflict baseline against which subsequent weeks are measured.

The week-by-week trajectory since the outbreak has been volatile, but the direction of travel is clear. Week 9's initial shock produced a 36% decline vs the pre-conflict average at 1.1M USG, before Week 10 appeared to signal a recovery, rebounding to 1.7M USG, flat against the pre-conflict baseline, but most likely reflecting the surge of evacuation and repositioning flights rather than any genuine stabilization of demand.

Week 11 then collapsed to just 922K USG, -47% vs the pre-conflict average, before Week 12 recorded 1.0M USG, -41% against the baseline. Week 13 edged slightly higher to 1.1M USG (-38%), but Week 14 has broken to a new low, falling to just 827K USG, a 52% decline vs the pre-conflict average and the weakest week in fuel uplift recorded since the conflict began.

Weekly Middle East bizjet fuel uplift pre vs post conflict.

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On a week-on-week basis the picture is equally concerning. Starting from the preconflict weekly average of 1.7M USG, Week 9 fell 36% before Week 10 rebounded sharply by +57% week-on-week to pre-conflict levels, a recovery now understood to reflect evacuation and repositioning traffic rather than genuine demand. Week 11 then collapsed -47% week-on-week to the dataset's lowest point at that time, before a modest +11% recovery in Week 12 and a further +4% nudge higher in Week 13.

Week 14 has erased both of those gains in a single move, falling 22% week-on-week to just 827K USG. The overall trajectory across six conflict-affected weeks is one of persistent suppression, punctuated by a brief and misleading spike in Week 10, with the trend now pointing decisively lower.

Weekly Middle East bizjet fuel uplift week-on-week changes since start of conflict.

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2026 Masters lookahead: Augusta set for record bizjet traffic

The Masters Tournament tees off this week at Augusta National, and WINGX data suggests Augusta Regional Airport (KAGS) is set for another exceptional surge in business jet arrivals. Across the last three years, the Masters has consistently generated one of the most dramatic weekly spikes in bizjet traffic of any recurring sporting event in the calendar, with surge ratios (Masters week arrivals relative to a typical week at KAGS) ranging from 17x in 2023 to 20x in 2024 and 19x in 2025, against non-Masters weekly averages of between 64 and 75 arrivals.

With KAGS averaging 95 arrivals per week across Weeks 1-14 of 2026, and applying the most conservative surge ratio from the three-year range of 17x, WINGX forecasts approximately 1,615 bizjet arrivals at Augusta during Masters week, which would represent the highest absolute arrival figure in recent years.

A cross-check against NetJets data provides a useful sanity check on this forecast.
NetJets has publicly projected 775 total movements at Augusta for this year's Masters, implying approximately 387 arrivals. At 24% of total forecast arrivals, NetJets' projected share is consistent with its 25% share recorded in 2023, 23% in 2024, and 25% in 2025, suggesting the overall market forecast of 1,615 arrivals is well-grounded. WINGX will report the actual Masters week arrival figures in next week's bulletin.

Augusta Regional Airport (KAGS) bizjet arrivals during Masters week vs weekly average (2023-2026F).

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Nick Koscinski, WINGX Analyst, comments: "Week 14 was softer globally, but the headline numbers need some unpacking. Europe’s 10% weekly decline looks alarming on the surface, but when you compare the equivalent Easter week’s directly, 8,628 departures this year (Week 14 2026) versus 8,579 last year (Week 16 2025), European demand is holding up just fine.

"In the Middle East, the picture is still concerning regardless of any new ceasefire announced, while fuel has now fallen to its lowest level since the conflict began.

"On a brighter note, all eyes turn to Augusta this week, where our data points to a forecasted record 1,615 bizjet arrivals, a timely reminder that marquee events continue to cut through even the most turbulent market conditions."

WINGX GmbH
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20095 Hamburg
Germany.

+49 40 23 96 85 05

BlueSky Business Aviation News | 9th April 2026 | Issue #837