Honeywell sees record business jet demand, expects decade of continued growth

Honeywell has published its 34th annual Global Business Aviation Outlook, which forecasts a record-setting number of new business jet deliveries over the next decade.

The report provides unique insights into current industry trends and longer-cycle developments based on forecasting models and surveys of hundreds of business aviation operators across the globe.

Within the report, Honeywell predicts 8,500 new business jets with a projected value of $283bn the highest in the report’s 34-year history - will be delivered over the next 10 years with an average annual growth rate of 3%. The strong demand for new jets continues to persist against a backdrop of increasingly complex macroeconomic and geopolitical factors. However, those factors have not slowed down the demand for new aircraft.

"The combination of recent economic growth, increasing demand for fractional ownership and a steady cadence of new aircraft development and technology upgrades have produced record levels of demand in business aviation," said Heath Patrick, president, Americas Aftermarket, Honeywell Aerospace Technologies.

"Operators are increasing their usage rates and in turn manufacturers are continuing to ramp up production to keep pace with growing demand. Over the next decade, we expect these record-setting levels of deliveries and usage to continue."

Key findings in the 2025 Honeywell Global Business Aviation Outlook include:

• New business jet deliveries in 2026 are expected to be 5% higher than in 2025.

• New business jet deliveries are expected to grow by 3% annually on average over the next 10 years.

• 91% of those surveyed expect to fly more or about the same in 2026 compared to 2025.

• 20% of operators globally have at least one aircraft on firm order – up from 17% a year ago. The figure was higher in 2025 for the subset of Part 135 and equivalent operators (private jet charters, for example), where 28% of respondents mentioned they have an aircraft on firm order.

• 89% of respondents consider “Performance” among their top three most important criteria when purchasing an aircraft, which compares with 82% from last year’s survey. “Cost” remains a distant second at 56%, which is down slightly from 60% last year.

• Demand for fractional ownership continues to lead industry growth with Midsize and Super Midsize being the jets of choice for these customers. Among those surveyed, 12% of operators of wholly owned business aircraft say they also own fractional shares.

• Fractional fleets have grown more than 65% since 2019 to roughly 1,300 aircraft now in service.

Growth from fractional operators, new economic policy contributing to higher demand

• Operators surveyed indicated that the return of 100% bonus depreciation following the signing of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA) earlier this year is expected to spur additional business aircraft purchase activity. This federal tax incentive allows businesses to deduct a large portion of the cost of certain assets – including business jets – in the year they are put into use.

• According to the survey findings, strong demand for fractional ownership is fueling large orders and contributing significantly to industry growth. The fractional ownership market has continued to outpace the industry in terms of growth, both in fleet sizes and flight activity. In fact, fractional fleets have grown more than 65% since 2019. Light, midsize and super midsize jets comprise 80% of these fractional fleets.

• While 12% of current operators of wholly owned aircraft said they also own fractional shares, 15% more said they are considering purchasing them in the future. When asked for reasons why they are considering purchasing these shares, nearly 50% of respondents said they would increase the overall flying capacity of their operation and 30% said they would use their fractional program to optimize their current flight operations.

Flight Activity: Strong year-over-year growth in 2025

• Operators are flying their aircraft noticeably more in 2025 when compared to 2024, with business jet flight hours up about 3% year over year after flight hours were virtually flat from 2023 to 2024. This growth is derived primarily from private operators and fractional ownership companies, where demand for charter flights has stabilized well above 2019 levels after fluctuating throughout the COVID-19 pandemic and the return of regularly scheduled airline routes.

• Corporate flight departments continue to lag in flight activity as they seek to optimize various cost elements of their flight operations. This is often achieved through selective use of wholly owned aircraft, charter flights, and fractional ownership.

• When asked, operators expressed optimism about their outlook for future flight activity, with 28% saying they plan to fly more next year compared to this year and 64% saying they plan to fly about the same over the same time.

Regional Breakdown: Recent delivery trends continue

North America: North America is expected to receive roughly 70% of new jet deliveries over the next three years as 17% of operators have aircraft on firm order and the region comprises a massive 62% of the global fleet. There is optimistic sentiment from operators in North America driven by regulation changes in the U.S. headlined by bonus depreciation. Operators in the region follow the global trend of flight activity optimism, with just over 90% saying they plan to fly either the same or more hours over the next year.

Europe: Europe is expected to receive about 14% of new jet deliveries over the next three years, and the portion of operators with aircraft on order is higher than the global average. Europe maintains 11% of the global business aviation fleet, but 29% of these operators state that they have at least one aircraft on firm order. The flight activity sentiment mirrors the global trends with nearly 30% of operators expecting to fly more in the coming year and about 60% expecting to fly the same.

Latin America: Latin America will accept 7% of global new jet deliveries over the next three years. 15% of the global fleet is based in the region and 19% of current operators there said they have aircraft on firm order. These operators tend to be more optimistic about their flight activity growth in the coming year, with 33% of them anticipating an increase.

Remainder of the world: Asia-Pacific and the Middle East & Africa regions are forecasted to receive 5% and 3% of global deliveries, respectively. Both regions have hovered around these levels for the past few years, and the trend is expected to continue. Operators in these regions are less bullish on flight activity growth than the other regions, but still nearly 20% of the region’s current operators expect to fly more, with most of the remainder still expecting to fly about the same amount in the coming year. The Middle East is poised for growth as positive regulatory changes and improvements to airport infrastructure will make it easier for business aviation entities to establish operations in and fly throughout the region.

Aircraft Purchase Priorities: Performance and cost remain king

• Aircraft performance and cost continue to be the two primary purchase drivers for buyers of business aircraft, with aircraft range being the single most important specification. Other aircraft performance-related specifications such as payload, field performance and speed rank near the top of the list of purchase drivers.

• Buyers surveyed who are purchasing new aircraft prioritize customer support and technology more than buyers of pre-owned aircraft. Specifically, buyers of new aircraft place higher value on good response time and technical support when compared with buyers of pre-owned aircraft.

• When asked about aircraft technology, buyers of new aircraft said they consider advancements in fly-by-wire controls, connectivity and advanced safety features in their purchase decisions more than buyers of pre-owned aircraft.

Sustainability in Business Aviation: More fuel-efficient aircraft key to environmental improvements

For the fifth consecutive year, Honeywell also conducted an analysis of sustainability in business aviation and examined how operators are trying to lower their carbon footprint. Key findings in the report include:

• 81% of operators believe that developing new, more fuel-efficient aircraft and engines is at least moderately effective in helping to achieve sustainability goals.

• 61% think sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) is at least moderately effective in reaching those same goals.

• Among those who are taking proactive steps to improve the sustainability of their operations, 60% are acquiring more fuel-efficient aircraft, 56% are using SAF and 31% are flying at more efficient cruise speeds.

• Regarding the adoption of SAF, cost and availability of the fuel continue to be the largest challenges.

Methodology

Honeywell’s forecast methodology is based on multiple sources, including macroeconomic analyses, original equipment manufacturers’ production and development plans shared with the company, expert deliberations with aerospace industry leaders and detailed analysis of Cirium and WINGX industry data. Honeywell, in partnership with Seefeld Group and Ad Hoc Research, also conducted surveys of business aviation operators comprising 312 nonfractional operators representing a fleet of 1,199 business aircraft worldwide. The survey sample is representative of the entire industry in terms of geography, operation and fleet composition. This comprehensive approach provides Honeywell with unique insights into operator sentiments, preferences and concerns and provides considerable intelligence on product development needs and opportunities.

Making an impact on business decisions

Honeywell’s Global Business Aviation Outlook reflects current operator concerns and identifies longer-cycle trends that Honeywell uses in its own product decision process. The survey has helped to identify opportunities for investments in sustainability solutions, enhance aircraft connectivity offerings, and expand propulsion offerings, innovative safety products, services and upgrades. The survey informs Honeywell’s business pursuit strategy and helps consistently position the company on high-value platforms in growth sectors.

Click here to request a copy of Honeywell’s 2025 Global Business Aviation Outlook

BlueSky Business Aviation News | 16th October 2025 | Issue #815