WINGX Global Market Tracker:

Post-Easter activity jump, with some recovery in Middle East

Eight weeks on from the outbreak of the US-Israel-Iran conflict, there are tentative signs that Middle East business aviation may be stabilising, with regional fuel uplift recording its strongest week-on-week recovery since the conflict began and narrowing the gap to pre-conflict levels to less than 20%.

Globally, bizjet activity posted a strong +10.6% year-on-year increase in Week 16, though the comparison week last year was Easter, meaning the growth figure is slightly inflated, comparing a non-Easter week this year vs Easter week last year.

Away from the conflict narrative, the Coachella Valley Music and Arts Festival delivered a standout demand spike at Jacqueline Cochran Regional Airport, with 565 bizjet departures recorded across the two-week festival window, nearly 30% above normal levels and 20% busier than during last year’s event.

Global Bizjet Activity

Global bizjet activity posted a strong +10.6% year-on-year increase in Week 16 (13-19 April), with the year-to-date figure (1 January-19 April) holding at +4.7% ahead of last year, a slight acceleration from the +4.6% reported through 12 April, and a notable improvement on the +2.4% achieved over the same period in 2025 vs 2024. North America anchored weekly growth at +12.2%, Europe delivered an impressive +15.3%, and South America continued its standout run at +26.1%.

However, it should be noted that the YOY comparison week (Week 16 2025) was Easter week, which typically produces a pronounced dip in business jet activity, meaning this week's strong YOY growth rate is partly a function of a favorable calendar comparison rather than an exceptional acceleration in underlying demand.

The Middle East continues to weigh on the global picture. Year-to-date, Middle East bizjet departures have accounted for approximately 1.5% of global activity, meaning the region's -18.5% YTD trend is dragging the global year-to-date trend down by roughly 0.3 percentage points. The region's 29.5% weekly decline in Week 16 marks the ninth consecutive week of year-on-year declines from the region.

The standout emerging market story of 2026 continues to be South America. Within the region, Brazil has been the primary engine of growth, posting a remarkable +24.0% YOY increase while accounting for 27.5% of all South American departures year-to-date.

Brazil's outperformance alone has contributed 6.6 percentage points of the region's overall YOY growth, demonstrating just how dominant its role has been in driving the South American trend.

Global Bizjet Departures Trends YTD (1 January-19 April).

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Middle East Weekly Evolution Tracker

WINGX estimated fuel uplift data continues to provide the clearest lens through which to measure the cumulative and weekly toll of the conflict on Middle East business aviation. This week, our pre-conflict baseline is Weeks 7 – 10 (9 February-8 March).

While the conflict outbreak occurred on 28 February in Week 9, the material impact on jet fuel pricing did not begin to be felt until the week of 9 March (Week 11), meaning Weeks 7 – 10 captures operating conditions before the fuel cost shock began cascading through the market. Across those four weeks, Middle East bizjet activity averaged 1.5M USG of estimated fuel uplift per week, establishing the baseline against which subsequent weeks are measured.

The week-by-week trajectory since Week 11 tells a story of persistent and deepening suppression. Week 11's initial shock produced a 39% decline vs the pre-conflict average at 922K USG, before Week 12 showed a partial recovery to 1.0M USG (-32% vs baseline), while Week 13 edged slightly higher to 1.1M USG (-29%). Week 14 then broke decisively lower to just 827K USG (-45% vs baseline), the weakest week in the dataset at that point. Week 15 recorded 899K USG, -41% vs the pre-conflict average. Most recently, Week 16 has brought a slight recovery, climbing to 1.2M USG, narrowing the gap to the pre-conflict average to -18%, the smallest deficit recorded since the conflict began.

Weekly Middle East bizjet fuel uplift pre vs post conflict.

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On a week-on-week basis, Week 11 fuel volumes fell 39% from the baseline before Week 12 recovered +11% and Week 13 nudged a further +4% higher. Week 14 then erased those gains with a sharp 23% week-on-week decline, before Week 15 partially recovered +9% week-on-week. Week 16 has delivered the strongest week-on-week improvement since the conflict began, with fuel uplift climbing +38% week-on-week.

Whether this represents a genuine turning point or a false recovery is the key question heading into Week 17.

Weekly Middle East bizjet fuel uplift week-on-week changes since start of conflict.

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Coachella 2026: Desert Airport Sees 30% Surge in Bizjet Traffic

The Coachella Valley Music and Arts Festival drew a clear and measurable surge in business jet traffic to the Coachella Valley this year, with Jacqueline Cochran Regional Airport (KTRM), which is the primary gateway airport for private and charter flights serving the festival and just a 15 minute drive from the festival grounds, recording 565 bizjet departures across the two-week event window (6-19 April).

Against an average two-week departure baseline of 442 flights recorded at KTRM across the first 14 weeks of 2026, the festival generated a surge of nearly 30% above normal levels, confirming Coachella's status as one of the most significant bizjet demand drivers in the spring calendar. For a direct year-on-year comparison, KTRM recorded just 470 departures during Coachella 2025, meaning this year's event was 20% busier than last year, a notable acceleration that suggests a growing appetite for private aviation access to the festival.

Nick Koscinski, WINGX Analyst, comments: "The global numbers look strong this week, while the Easter calendar comparison is inflating it somewhat, underlying demand is solid.

"Coachella was the standout story, with Jacqueline Cochran Regional Airport 20% busier than last year and nearly 30% above its normal two-week baseline.

"In the Middle East, fuel is now at its closest point to pre-conflict levels since the conflict began, but the region has still seen nine consecutive weeks of year-on-year declines."

WINGX GmbH
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20095 Hamburg
Germany.

+49 40 23 96 85 05

BlueSky Business Aviation News | 23rd April 2026 | Issue #839