As expected, the UK government announced on 25 October 2016 that a third runway for Heathrow is its favoured option for airport capacity growth.

However, according to Ben Vogel, Editor of IHS Jane's Airport Review, the decision by a special cabinet committee merely signals the start of a year-long delay, before a binding vote is held in late 2017 or early 2018.

"The latest government statement on UK expansion seems to be a step forward, but, in fact, it fails to resolve the issue," he says. "By building in another delay before the final vote, the government raises suspicions that it will find further excuses to kick the can down the road. Political expediency is leading to a delay that may affect the UK economy at the worst possible time, as the government seeks a navigable path through the Brexit maze.

"Bizarrely, ministers are allowed to disagree with government policy but they will not be permitted to campaign publicly for a judicial review. There are many anti-Heathrow expansion MPs in the governing Conservative Party who could cause trouble for the government, which is anxious to preserve its slim majority while it tries to negotiate Brexit. Boris Johnson, one of the highest-profile members of the successful Brexit campaign, is adamantly opposed to a third runway and has said he will continue to fight the project.

"Brexit adds a whole new set of complexities separate from the lengthy planning approval process; the protests from local councils, concerned residents and environmental activists; the political opposition; cost wrangles with airlines; and the possibility that Gatwick may mount a legal challenge.

"The lack of movement on airport expansion undermines UK economic competitiveness and credibility among aviation stakeholders worldwide - even if ground was broken on the third runway tomorrow, it would probably take 15 years before the first aircraft used it. Airport operators in Paris, Amsterdam and Frankfurt will be delighted. They're growing on the back of the UK’s vacillation and prevarication."

Pilots, Airlines and Unions welcome expansion decision

Brian Strutton, General Secretary of The British Airline Pilots’ Association (BALPA) commented, “We are pleased the Government has finally taken a long overdue stance but it’s disappointing the definitive vote will not take place for at least another year. Heathrow is already operating at almost maximum capacity so expansion is vital to the UK economy and aviation industry."

Dale Keller, chief executive of the Board of Airline Representatives in the UK ( BAR UK) said, “We welcome that a decision has finally been made to allow an additional runway at Heathrow, and yet for us this is simply the beginning and the real work starts now. We look forward to engaging closely with the Government and Heathrow Airport Limited during the public consultation and National Policy Statement process that follows, to ensure that the new capacity can be financed without pre-funding by today’s passengers and be delivered on-time and at a cost that is affordable to airlines and the travelling public. The new runway will deliver further vital connectivity for the whole of UK’s economy in an increasingly globalised world.”

Mick Rix, GMB National Officer for Transport and Distribution, representing airport workers, said, "This not only protects the 80,000 jobs directly employed at the airport but will increase to a further 114,000 jobs that will be needed and 10,000 local apprenticeship schemes."

An analysis of the project by the Airports Commission in 2014 found that Heathrow expansion would create up to 180,000 jobs and provide £211bn in economic benefits across the UK by 2050.

“The majority of people who live and work near the airport, business, and all major trade unions, and the TUC who have members employed by the airport are supportive of expansion. Heathrow expansion is a win, win for everyone. The time for dithering and political expediency has to stop, there is a clear cut case for Heathrow expansion, Heathrow expansion and the economy desperately needs decisiveness not delay.”

Environmental concerns

The mayor of London, Sadiq Khan, however accused the government of “running roughshod over Londoners’ views”, saying he had been elected on a clear platform of opposing a new runway at Heathrow. He said: “A new runway at Heathrow will be devastating for air quality across London - air pollution around the airport is already above legal levels of NO2.

“Heathrow already exposes more people to aircraft noise than Paris CDG, Frankfurt, Amsterdam, Munich and Madrid combined. A third runway would mean an extra 200,000 people impacted, exposing 124 more schools and 43,200 more schoolchildren to an unacceptable level of noise.”

Property occupied by an estimated 750 residents in surrounding areas will be subject to Compulsory Purchase Orders.

IHS Jane's Airport Review: www.ihsairport360.com/