Avinode, the world’s leading online marketplace for buying and selling air charter, is predicting the recovery of the U.S. business jet charter market to continue in 2015, with a 3.5% increase in flights versus 2014, while Europe will finally show modest growth, with flight volumes growing by 1.6%.

According to the Avinode Business Jet Charter Market Forecast, all regions of the U.S. will see charter market growth in 2015. The South will perform strongest, with an increase in flight numbers of 4%, closely followed by the West, where volumes will grow by 3.6%. The North-East will see a 3.3% increase in activity, while the Mid-West will record growth of 2.5%.

Speaking on Monday at NBAA2014, Avinode Group CEO Niklas Berg said: “This year, the U.S. charter market has performed extraordinarily well, demonstrating its strongest figures since the financial crisis of 2008. We expect that by the end of 2014, the U.S. will see its highest annual levels of business jet travel for at least six years. New business models are emerging, more aircraft are being purchased, and venture capital is flowing back into the market. This trend will only continue in 2015, when we are predicting market growth of 3.5%.”

Turning to the situation in Europe, Berg said: “After six years of decline, we expect the European market to finally move back into the black in 2015, with a 1.6% increase in flights. This aggregate figure reflects a clear divide between improving conditions in the North and ongoing challenges in the South, plus ongoing uncertainty caused by geopolitical issues between Russia and the Ukraine. While we expect the European market to improve next year, the region will take longer than the U.S. to return to its pre-recession levels.”

In 2015, Avinode forecasts Northern Europe, where demand is more related to business travel, to experience 2.8% market growth. In contrast, Southern Europe, where flight activity is more leisure-related and the impact of Russia/Ukraine developments is more apparent, will see flight activity increase by only 0.8%.

Aircraft Category Forecast

In the light jet category (including entry-level, light and super-light jets), U.S. flights are expected to grow by 2.6% in 2015, driven mainly by a 12.5% increase in entry-level jet activity. In Europe, the light jet category will grow by only 0.5%, reflecting market share losses in light jets offset by 3.3% growth in entry-level jets.

In the midsize jet category (comprising midsize and super-midsize jets), flights will see U.S. and European growth of 3.1% and 2.2% respectively.

In the heavy jet category (comprising heavy and ultra-long-range jets), flight numbers are predicted to rise by 5.8% in the U.S. and 3.5% in Europe. This expansion will be driven mainly by ultra-long-range jet flights, which will grow by 8.4% in the U.S. and 8.1% in Europe.

Avinode’s annual business aviation forecast is based on historical flight data, economic growth forecasts, aircraft deliveries and forecast demand based on Avinode Marketplace trends.